Loonie briefly dips below parity as oil prices tumble

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 27, 2007 | 5:30 PM ET

CBC News

The Canadian dollar briefly fell below parity with the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, as oil prices shed more than $3 US a barrel.

The loonie dipped as low as 99.97 cents US in mid-afternoon trading, the Bank of Canada told CBCNews.ca.

That marked the first time since Oct. 4 that the Canadian dollar was worth less than its U.S. counterpart. But the loonie's journey below parity lasted only a few minutes. The dollar quickly regained ground to close the trading day at $1.0050 US, which was off 0.39 of a cent from Monday's close.

The Canadian dollar reached parity with the U.S. dollar on Sept. 20 — the first time it had been that high in almost 31 years. It continued to rise over the next few weeks, topping out at $1.1030 US on Nov. 7. In the three weeks since, however, it has been on a long slide.

Some analysts say it's simply a case of the value of the dollar falling after going up too quickly.

Allison Mendes, portfolio manager with MFC Global Investment Management, said the loonie needed to come down. "It was in overbought territory," she told CBC News.

Steve Butler, director of foreign exchange trading at Scotia Capital Markets, called it "a healthy correction."

BMO Capital Markets said the number of Canadian dollar "net longs" — the difference between the number of futures contracts that are betting the loonie will rise and the number betting on a fall — is it the lowest level in eight months. That "net long" number has fallen for six straight weeks as traders increasingly bet against a rise in the Canadian dollar.

Curbing the loonie's ascent has been the expectation that the Bank of Canada may cut interest rates to keep the economy going. The bank's next interest rate decision comes on Dec. 4.

Also weighing on the Canadian dollar Tuesday was a sharp drop in the price of crude oil. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, January light sweet crude was down $3.28 at $94.42 US a barrel.

The sharp drop came amid reports that members of OPEC are considering an output increase to help reduce the price of oil, which hovered near $100 US a barrel recently.

Concerns over an economic slowdown that could reduce demand were also cited by analysts as contributing to Tuesday's drop in prices.

Iran leader dismisses US currency

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has suggested an end to the trading of oil in US dollars, calling the currency "a worthless piece of paper".

The call came at the end of a rare Opec summit, and was opposed by US ally Saudi Arabia.

The Iranian president had wanted to include the attack on the dollar in the summit's closing statement.

The communique made little mention of the dollar, however, focusing instead on energy security and the environment.

The summit in Saudi Arabia was only Opec's third in 47 years.

During the talks, Opec members revealed differences about the future direction of the exporters' group.

But Opec leaders ended with a pledge to provide the world with reliable supplies of oil.

Unfair trade?

Speaking after the end of the summit, Mr Ahmadinejad said all leaders at the meeting were unhappy with recent falls in the value of the dollar.

The dollar has weakened considerably against the euro and other currencies in the past 12 months.

Its decline has affected the revenues of Opec members because most of them price and sell their oil exports in the US currency.

Mr Ahmadinejad said that all Opec countries had showed interest in converting their cash reserves into other currencies.

"They [the US] get our oil and give us a worthless piece of paper," he told reporters.

But Saudi officials were against including any such language in the declaration. One is reported to have warned that it could add to the pressure on the dollar.

However, in the communique Opec did make a reference to the debate, by committing itself to studying "ways and means of enhancing financial co-operation".

Iran's oil minister said that this would allow the formation of a committee to study the dollar's affect on oil prices and investigate the possibility of alternative trading currencies.

Political agenda

The summit was also marked by divisions over the role of Opec in the world oil market.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and his Ecuadorean counterpart, Rafael Correa, whose country rejoined Opec at the summit, both argued for a more political agenda for the group, but ran into opposition from US ally Saudi Arabia.

King Abdullah, the head of state of the host nation, Saudi Arabia said: "Those who want Opec to take advantage of its position are forgetting that Opec has always acted moderately and wisely.

"Oil shouldn't be a tool for conflict, it should be a tool for development."

President Chavez had opened the meeting with a warning that oil prices could double if the US attacked Iran.

Oil has been hitting record peaks of well over $90 a barrel as markets believe the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries will not boost production, despite calls from oil-consuming countries such as the US to do so.

Venezuela's president said the price of crude could reach $150 or even $200 a barrel.

Canadians shopping in U.S. pushing border resources to limit

They're filling a border refugee processing centre to capacity on the weekends, but these weary travellers entering Canada from the U.S. aren't seeking asylum — they're cross-border shoppers lured south by the loonie's record-breaking showing against the Yankee greenback. Bargain-hungry shoppers — often arriving by the busload — have been choking key border crossings across the country on weekends, straining resources at the border and forcing officials to scramble to find staff and facilities to process their purchases. In Ontario, a building intended to handle refugee claimants has been pressed into service to deal with the sheer volume of shoppers. All across Canada, the story is much the same as Canadians cash in on a dollar that's been worth more than its U.S. counterpart for weeks. Residents of St. Stephen, N.B., endured a two-kilometre lineup of vehicles snaking through their small town bordering on Maine during the Remembrance Day weekend. At the same time, the wait at the Pacific Highway border crossing in Surrey, B.C., was about four hours long. In Ontario, the crush of cross-border shoppers has led to extraordinary measures. Last Sunday, 50 chartered shopping buses carrying up to 55 people each began arriving after 4 p.m. at the Fort Erie crossing from Buffalo. With no personal exemptions on same-day travel purchases, hundreds of shoppers had to be processed for tax and possible duty payments. "We had to park the buses in our commercial area so that we could orderly process them, [and] we did open up extra facilities," said Jean D'Amelio-Swyer, a spokeswoman for Canada Border Services Agency. "We opened up a refugee processing centre and we had some extra cashier capability."
Problem is, there's only so many people you can put in those buildings at the same time, said D'Amelio-Swyer. As a result, after waiting an hour to cross the border, same-day shoppers then faced a two- to three-hour wait for customs agents to process their goods. "At minimum, these people have to pay PST and GST on their goods," she said. "There may be some duties applicable if the goods are not made in North America." Border agents were already working with stretched resources before the dollar's historic climb and many are now working overtime to handle the current crush, said Ron Moran, president of the Customs Excise Union. "It's still relatively early as a phenomenon, but we're already hearing that they won't be able to hold that line indefinitely," Moran said.
Early stages of bargaining
The country's 10,000 customs and immigration offers have been without a contract since June 21 and are in the early stages of collective bargaining, but no job action is planned, he added. "If the union were to start exercising pressure, it would get disastrous pretty quickly, [but] we're not suggesting that we're at that stage," he said. On a relatively calm Tuesday afternoon at the Queenston-Lewiston border crossing near Niagara Falls, Ont., shoppers that passed through customs after a mere 30-minute border wait weren't all that impressed with the goods to be had south of the border. "There wasn't any really huge deals. There was some on video games, which I primarily came for. It was mostly toys and stuff for Christmas," said Gina Robinson, 38, who made the two-hour trip from her home in Aurora, Ont. "I probably wouldn't be in a huge hurry to come back because it's the whole headache with the border. We were panicking, looking at our watches thinking, 'What time are we leaving, what time are we leaving?' " How high would the dollar have to go to lure Robinson back to the malls in New York state?
Deal on turkey
"A buck-fifty. In my perfect world, yeah. Otherwise, no." All the bargain hunting amounted to little more than Thanksgiving turkey for another Ontario woman who made the trek. "I feel the prices were not that good, about the same as in Canada," said Pauline Rochon of Lowbanks, Ont. — about an hour's drive from the Queenston bridge. When asked if she managed to ferret out any deals, Rochon replied: "Only on turkey at 29 cents a pound." The loonie's strong performance has turned border traffic flow in Surrey, B.C., somewhat on its head, said Len Dasilva of the West Coast Duty Free shop. "The busiest use to be on a Sunday when U.S. traffic was heading back. It's switched to Friday and Saturday now," said Dasilva.
'Buying habits are different'
"We lost the U.S. traffic and made it up with Canadians somewhat, but the buying habits are different. Canadians tend not to spend as much per head as Americans." The same-day shopping phenomenon has also struck the Prairies, saddling border agents there with the same crush witnessed in Ontario and elsewhere. "We used to get the 48-hour exemption, the weekend traveller. But now we're seeing more and more same-day travellers," said Loretta Nyhus, Canadian Border Services Agency spokeswoman for the Prairie region. The limited facilities and staff to process those travellers "reduces our capacity to open up additional lanes because there's only so much capacity within the office." Anyone who's still eager to spend their loonies in the U.S. might want to do it on a weekday to avoid spending several hours in a refugee processing centre with busloads of shoppers, D'Amelio-Swyer said. "Anyone who's got the opportunity to plan a shopping trip on a weekday, that might be a better alternative because right now on weekdays we're not having this huge surge of buses coming back."

This says it all, even Santa goes to the USA to shop

Buyer Beware: U.S. lemons found on Canadian car lots

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 13, 2007 | 12:02 PM ET

CBC News

Hundreds of vehicles labelled lemons in the United States are turning up at Canadian dealerships where some unsuspecting customers are being offered defective cars, CBC News has learned.

In one instance, a Kia minivan that originally sold for $28,100 US in Florida was sold at auction to a Winnipeg dealer for $13,100 US after it was declared a lemon. It ended up on a Winnipeg car lot where it was recently found on sale for $24,980 and with no warnings about its history.

Unlike the U.S., Canada has no lemon laws despite attempts to establish them in British Columbia, Manitoba and Ontario.

Eric Schrepel, who bought the 2006 Kia minivan brand new from a Florida dealership, said the battery died four times in less than 18 months and no mechanic could solve the problem.

"There was some sort of short that they just couldn't locate in the car. Kia makes a very good car. But I think this one is just literally — it was just a lemon," Schrepel told CBC News.

The manufacturer followed the letter of the law in Florida and bought back the van. It later resold it to the Winnipeg dealer.

A salesman at the Winnipeg car lot would only say the van had been designated a lemon in Florida after being asked several times. Even then he guaranteed the van would perform properly.

While the definition of lemon varies by state, it most often means that despite several trips to the dealer's service department, a vehicle continues to have a serious problem.

Once a vehicle is declared a lemon, the manufacturer has to buy it back. But there's nothing to stop the manufacturer from reselling it.

While all 50 states have lemon laws, only 19 require the title of a car declared a lemon to carry a warning. When a dealer sells a lemon out-of-state, the lemon designation is often not carried over.

A CBC News investigation found that between May 1, 2006, and Nov. 5, 2007, 852 American lemons were imported into Canada, with more than 110 of those crossing the border since the Canadian dollar reached parity.

Have we topped out - Loonie loses almost three cents against U.S. dollar

Last Updated: Monday, November 12, 2007 | 4:47 PM ET

CBC News

The Canadian dollar continued to retreat Monday from the record highs that it reached last week against the U.S. dollar.

The loonie slipped 2.98 cents US to $1.0309 US in foreign exchange trading. There was no official close from the Bank of Canada as it was closed Monday for the Remembrance Day

The loonie has dropped more than 7 cents from its high of $1.1030 US that was reached on Nov. 7.

The Canadian dollar lost ground as the U.S. dollar found some footing against the euro and the U.K. pound.

The euro bought $1.4554 US, down more than a cent from the all-time high of $1.4752 reached Friday.

The British pound retreated to $2.0595 US from $2.0909 US. The pound has been trading recently at highs against the U.S. dollar not seen since the early 1980s.

Market watchers said the loonie is cooling after a rapid rise in recent months. The dollar just regained parity with the U.S. greenback in September.

"It's only natural when things start to overshoot and the pace of appreciation has been this fast to see corrections like this," said Mohammed Ali, vice-president at TD Securities in London.

Ali said a buildup in pressure for a December interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve will eventually help curb the loonie's recent slide.

3 cents UP, 3 cents down - what a day

Another volatile day for loonie

Last Updated: Thursday, November 8, 2007 | 5:18 PM ET

CBC News

The Canadian dollar continued to unwind from the record high it reached Wednesday morning, closing below $1.07 US in afternoon trading Thursday.

The loonie closed 0.91 cents lower at $1.0684 US.

Volatility was again the rule of the day — though not to the same extent as on Wednesday, when the dollar went through a three-cent swing. The swing on Thursday was about 1.75 cents.

Some analysts said profit-taking may have been behind the latest drop, but noted that the futures market still shows there are many who think the dollar will resume its climb.

Finance minister Jim Flaherty told reporters Thursday he was "concerned" by the dollar's recent appreciation, adding his voice to a growing chorus of political comment on the lofty loonie.

On Thursday, Quebec Premier Jean Charest asked Prime Minister Stephen Harper to convene a gathering of all the premiers to discuss the loonie.

Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty met with Harper on Thursday. McGuinty said the province's manufacturing industry needs lower interest rates to cool off the dollar and said Harper "listened intently" during the private meeting.

The PM said earlier this week that the sharp appreciation of the dollar required "some reflection," but stopped short of saying the Bank of Canada should cut rates.

The dollar reached a modern-era high of $1.1030 US in early trading Wednesday before fading later in the day as oil prices fell back.

Oil prices retreated further to $96 US a barrel on Thursday, down 37 cents. That still leaves oil near historical highs.

The loonie has been heading steadily higher for much of the last five years as commodity prices surge and the U.S. dollar weakens against most of the world's major currencies.

Since the start of the year, the Canadian dollar has jumped 27 per cent in value against its U.S. counterpart.

Why the jump? China converts its $1.43 trillion in foreign exchange reserves from US into the euro and other strong currencies (Canadian).

Stocks Fall Sharply As Dollar Stumbles
Wednesday November 7, 1:34 pm ET By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer
Wall Street Falls Sharply As Dollar Sinks to Fresh Lows Against Euro; Credit Concerns Remain

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street plunged sharply and Treasurys jumped Wednesday after the dollar sank further amid speculation that China will seek to diversify some of its foreign currency stockpiles beyond the greenback. Further concerns about troubles in the credit markets sent the Dow Jones industrial average down more than 270 points.

Unease about the dollar dogged stock markets worldwide and in the U.S. comes a day after stocks continued their recent zigzagging to finish with sizable gains.
The 13-nation euro hit a fresh record against the dollar -- rising to $1.4729 -- before falling back. The dollar fell not only against the euro but in Asia following a report that a senior Chinese political figure said China should diversify its $1.43 trillion foreign exchange reserves into the euro and other strong currencies.

The euro's rally put it well above the $1.4554 the currency bought late Tuesday in New York. The previous record high, also set Tuesday, was $1.4571.
The swooning dollar for a time sent oil above $98 per barrel for the first time and also pushed gold higher.

"We've been seeing a bit of a tug of war," said Tim Swanson, chief investment officer at National City's Private Client Group, noting that investors have been grappling with concerns about spiking commodities and credit concerns but seeing reasonable growth in other parts of the economy.

In early afternoon trading, the Dow fell 275.48, or 2.02 percent, to 13,385.46. On Tuesday, the Dow gained about 117 points as some investors looked for bargains despite overhanging concerns about the banking industry's exposure to bad debt.

Broader stock indicators also pulled back Wednesday. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 32.92, or 2.17 percent, to 1,487.35 -- moving below the psychological benchmark of 1,500. The Nasdaq composite index fell 52.39, or 1.85 percent, to 2,772.79.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 21.86, or 2.7 percent, to 779.91.
Government bonds jumped as the dollar sank and as investors transferred more money from stocks to fixed-income investments. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 4.33 percent from 4.37 percent late Tuesday.

Light, sweet crude fell $1.70 to $95 on the New York Mercantile Exchange but came off its high after the goverment reported inventories fell less than expected last week while refinery utilization remained flat.

December gold surged $10.00 to $833.40 an ounce on the Nymex.
Economic data arriving Wednesday appeared to offer some upbeat news, although investors remained concerned about the faltering dollar and rising prices for oil and gold. The Labor Department reported that worker productivity surged at an annual rate of 4.9 percent in the summer, the fastest pace in four years, while wage pressures eased.

Figures on U.S. wholesale inventories showed a greater-than-expected increase in September but that demand also held up.
"On one side we've got the forces of globalization and on the other side we've got woes from housing and largely related credit concerns," Swanson said. "As we see volatility on a day-by-day basis it's these two forces duking it out trying to see which ultimately will prevail.
"On days like today, it feels awful just like on days like yesterday it felt great," he said, referring to the market's gains Tuesday. "Once you step back from day to day gyrations and look at valuations you come away with a view that things are OK."

Still, he said a slumping dollar and rising oil are concerns. The economy could likely eventually absorb an "orderly decline" in the dollar and more modest moves in oil prices, he said. At present, though, there is concern that oil is acting as a "tax on U.S. consumers," by making them spend more on fuel than in other areas.

Beyond broader economic concerns, some corporate news didn't offer Wall Street much reason for cheering. General Motors Corp. reported a $39 billion loss for the third quarter due to an accounting shift. The company warned late Tuesday it would book a $38.6 billion noncash charge largely related to establishing a valuation allowance. A valuation allowance is taken when the future benefit of the deferred tax assets is less likely to be realized.
GM's loss came to $68.85 per share, compared with a loss of $147 million, or 26 cents per share, in the third quarter a year earlier. The stock fell $1.93, or 5.3 percent, to $34.23.
In other corporate news, Foster Wheeler Ltd. rose $8.53, or 6.3 percent, to $143.84 after the provider of engineering and construction services said growth abroad helped boost quarterly profits 70 percent.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers by nearly 7 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 881.4 million shares.
Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average closed down 0.94 percent. Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.85 percent, Germany's DAX index fell 0.35 percent, and France's CAC-40 fell 0.46 percent.
New York Stock Exchange: http://www.nyse.com
Nasdaq Stock Market: http://www.nasdaq.com

Given the speed of change, we could see a $1.15 US or $1.20 US [dollar].

Last Updated: Wednesday, November 7, 2007 11:46 AM ET
CBC News
The Canadian dollar continued its lofty flight as it topped $1.10 US on Wednesday, while the U.S. dollar continued to weaken on a signal from China that it might be selling off some of its huge U.S. dollar holdings.
Shortly after the start of trading in North America, the loonie was up more than 1.75 cents US at $1.1027 US. But by 11:45 a.m. ET, it had slipped back to $1.0892 US, still up 0.40 cents US from Tuesday's close.
The latest weakness in the U.S. dollar came after Chinese officals said they want to diversify their $1.43 trillion US of foreign exchange reserves away from the U.S. dollar.
'Given the speed of change, we could see a $1.15 US or $1.20 US [dollar].'—Derek Burleton, TD Bank senior economist
"We will favour stronger currencies over weaker ones, and will readjust accordingly,'' Xu Jian, a Chinese central bank vice director, told a conference in Beijing.
"This is the clarion call for all currency reserve managers around the world that the largest holder of U.S. dollars outside the country is seriously thinking of selling them for other currencies," said BMO foreign exchange strategist Andrew Busch.
The greenback fell to another record low of $1.4703 US against the euro, while the British pound hit $2.1051 US, a level not seen since since May 1981.
Higher oil prices also helped propel the Canadian dollar. The December futures contract for light sweet crude was up $0.87 US at $97.57 US per barrel at 10:20 a.m. ET.
Gold also shot higher Wednesday, gaining almost $22 US to hit $845.30 US an ounce before retreating to $838.40.
The latest advance of the loonie is sending economists back to the drawing board to redo their dollar forecasts. The currency has appreciated much faster than most observers had been expecting.
"I've given up guessing in the short run," TD Bank senior economist Derek Burleton told CBC News on Wednesday. "There's nothing, I don't think, that's going to keep the U.S. dollar from weakening further in the very near term. Given the speed of change, we could see a $1.15 US or $1.20 US [dollar]," he said.
The Canadian dollar regained parity with the U.S. greenback in September. The loonie has been setting new records since Oct. 31, when it topped its previous modern-day high of $1.0614 US, which dated back to August 1957.
Since the start of the year, the dollar has risen by about 24 cents US.

Loonie surpasses $1.10 US

Last Updated: Wednesday, November 7, 2007 8:38 AM ET
CBC News
The Canadian dollar continued its lofty flight as it passed $1.10 US on Wednesday while the U.S. dollar continued to weaken.
Shortly after the start of trading in North America, the loonie was up more than 1.75 cents at $1.1027 US.
The U.S. dollar continued to lose ground against other currencies. The greenback fell to another record low of $1.4703 US against the euro, while the British pound hit $2.1051 US, a level not seen since since May 1981.
Higher oil prices also helped propel the Canadian dollar. The December futures contract for light sweet crude was up $1.27 US at $97.97 US per barrel.
Gold also shot higher Wednesday, gaining almost $22 US to hit $845.30 US an ounce.
The latest of advance of the loonie will most likely send economists back to the drawing board to redo their forecasts for the dollar. The currency has appreciated much faster than many observers had been expecting.
The Canadian dollar regained parity with the U.S. greenback in September. The loonie has been setting new records since Oct. 31, when it surpassed its previous modern-day high of $1.0614, which dated back to August 1957.

Loonie hits $1.10 US mark in overseas trade

Last Updated: Wednesday, November 7, 2007 12:53 AM ET
The Canadian Press
The Canadian dollar broke through the $1.10 US mark in overseas trading early Wednesday.
Analysts say the high-flying loonie, which hit the 110.02 cents US mark, shows no sign of landing anytime soon.
The currency set a modern-era record last Friday when it rose to 1.07 cents US, the highest it's been since 1950.
Analysts say the latest surge is credited to an impressive run-up in the price of crude oil, which is now flirting with the $98 US a barrel mark Wednesday.
Analysts also point to surging gold prices and solid returns for other commodities, particularly wheat.
The weak American dollar is further boosting the loonie.

'Incredible' loonie tops $1.09 US

Doesn't surprise me.

Economists say run-up will end ... but when?

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 6, 2007 | 8:59 PM ET

The Canadian Press

The Canadian loonie broke through another psychological barrier Tuesday, rising above $1.09 US in after-hours trading and raising alarms that the rapid acceleration is both unsustainable and damaging to the economy.

With crude oil closing in on the increasingly inevitable $100 US a barrel era, and other commodities also showing stubborn strength, the Canadian currency had another day for the record books, adding on to Monday's previous all-time high close to finish regular trading Tuesday in Toronto at 108.52 cents US, up 1.34 cents.

"This is nothing short of incredible," said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist with BMO Capital Markets. "I'd like to say we're nearing the end of the run, but I can't say that confidently."

In fact, the Canadian currency continued to head skyward in after-hours trading Tuesday, rising another 0.65 cent US to hit 109.17 cents US at about 5:15 p.m. ET — slightly more than an hour after trading officially ends in Toronto. It later slipped back to hover around $1.09 US in evening trading.

The currency has been breaking new ground since Friday when it rose above $1.07 US, the highest it's been since 1950 when the dollar was allowed to trade freely.

The latest surge was credited to an equally impressive run-up in the price of crude oil, up to above $96 US a barrel, and gold prices that surged by over $14 US an ounce, as well as solid returns for other commodities, particularly wheat.

However, there were growing concerns that the loonie's muscle was not only suspected of being at least artificially enhanced, but also likely to exert some pain to the Canadian economy.

Risks to economy increase

In a speech in New York, Bank of Canada senior deputy governor Paul Jenkins cautioned that despite firm commodity prices and strong domestic demand, "the magnitude of the [loonie's] recent appreciation appears to be stronger than historical experience would have suggested."

And given that the loonie's surge is even stronger than the bank anticipated only three weeks ago, he warned that the risks of damage to the Canadian economy has also increased.

"The combined effect of a weaker U.S. outlook and a higher assumed level for the Canadian dollar implies that net exports will exert a significant drag on the Canadian economy," he said.

Scotia Capital economist Karen Cordes said she also expects to see a decline in domestic retail sales as more and more Canadians are lured by low prices south of the border.

"Whatever the reasons or sources of the strength, the dollar has a huge implication for Canada and we're going to start feeling it soon," she said.

Exporters feel more heat

The sky-high loonie has already caused havoc with exporting sectors, particularly manufacturers and the forest industry that depend on selling products into the United States.

Last week, Canadian Auto Workers president Buzz Hargrove again called on Bank of Canada governor David Dodge to match the 75 basis point interest rate cuts in the U.S. as a way of reining in the loonie, which he said was affecting not only car exports, but also the entire auto parts sector.

Cordes also said she believes the bank should begin cutting rates early next year, though she doubted it would. A rate cut would make foreign investments into Canada less attractive, deflating demand for the Canadian currency.

U.S. analyst Dennis Gartman, who was among the first to predict the loonie's ascent past parity as far back as five years ago on the simple premise that Canada "has stuff the world wants," said the Canadian currency is now on such a roll that it may be difficult to reverse quickly.

"The Canadian dollar is like an aircraft carrier and you can't stop that on a dime, it's got a lot of momentum," said the author of the influential Gartman Letter out of Virginia Beach. "It'll stop when one of your major exporters closes shop and says he can't compete anymore."

But Gartman disagreed with critics of the high dollar, saying that in the long run a strong currency is good for Canada because it will force businesses to compete in the world despite the high currency.

Still, he said he is not "long" on the dollar and predicts any rise above $1.10 US will be unsustainable.

Oil hits another record above $97

Fears of dwindling stockpiles in the United States, a falling dollar and projections of strong demand push crude closer to $100.

NEW YORK -- Oil prices set another record high Tuesday, jumping over $2 on fears of dwindling supplies in the United States, projections for strong worldwide demand and a falling U.S. dollar.

A suicide bombing in Afghanistan that killed at least 35 people and a pipeline attack in Yemen also helped push prices higher.

Oil prices jumped above $96 Friday, another record, as traders bet on falling U.S. supply.

U.S. light crude for December delivery gained $2.72 to settle at $96.70 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, surpassing the previous closing high of $95.93 set Friday. Crude hit an intraday high of $97.07, surpassing the previous intraday record of $96.05, also set Friday.

Crude, already up more than $2 in morning trade, rose further after the Energy Information Administration issued a report showing worldwide demand unchanged, despite high prices.

EIA said the forecast for oil use growth worldwide in 2008 was unchanged at 1.5 million barrels per day. This was despite the fact prices have risen 20 percent.

The agency said world oil use would grow by 1.8 million barrels per day in the current quarter, slightly below previous estimates due to a drop in U.S. demand.

The world currently consumes about 85.6 million barrels of oil a day.

Total U.S. petroleum consumption is expected to increase by 0.5 percent in 2007 and 1 percent in 2008, despite the higher oil and petroleum product prices. Continued economic growth and forecasted colder average temperatures this winter than last winter could combine to push demand higher.

The rising demand's impact on prices was noted.

"Tight fundamentals continue to put upward pressure on oil prices," read the report. "Global oil markets will likely remain stretched, as world oil demand has continued to grow much faster than oil supply outside of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries."

EIA estimates oil prices in the fourth quarter to average $87 a barrel.

Crude got a boost earlier in the day on projections of another stockpile draw in the United States.

Analysts expect a 1.6 million barrel drop in domestic crude supplies when the government issues its weekly inventory report Wednesday.

Most of the decline is being blamed on an outage from Pemex, Mexico's national oil company. Mexico, after Canada, is the second largest source of imported U.S. oil.

The drop would follow last week's decline of more than 5 million barrels. It would also come while refineries are shutting down for planned maintenance - a time that should see rising supplies of oil as refineries turn less of it into gasoline.

Overseas, at least 35 people - including three children and six members of parliament - have been killed in a suicide bombing at a sugar factory in northern Afghanistan, the hospital chief in that province told CNN.

While Afghanistan doesn't produce much oil, violence in the Middle East always makes traders nervous. The fear is the conflict could spread to the broader region, which holds nearly two-thirds of the world's oil reserves.

An attack on an oil pipeline in Yemen also disrupted the shipment of 155,000 barrels of oil a day, the Associated Press reported.

The continuing weakness of the U.S. dollar, which hit $1.4556 against the euro earlier Tuesday, also contributed to climbing oil prices.

One analyst said oil will likely attempt to break $100 a barrel but actually doing so might be tough.

"We still feel that prices will ultimately advance to at least $98.50," Peter Beutel, an oil analyst at Cameron Hanover, wrote in a research note. "But there will be increasingly heavy long-term profit-taking as prices get closer to the magical three-digit level."

Crude prices have spiked more than 20 percent in the last three weeks. The jump is unusual because this time of year is known as a shoulder season - marked by slack demand - between the summer driving and winter heating months.

Crude is now at or near all-time highs, even adjusted for inflation. The last time oil was this high was the early 1980s, when it rose to $93 to $101 a barrel, depending on the inflation calculation used and the oil contract cited.

Fighting between Turkey and the Kurds in oil-rich northern Iraq, reports showing demand outpacing supply in the fourth quarter, a falling dollar and lots of speculative investing have all been cited as reasons for the runup.

Crude oil prices have surged nearly five-fold since trading below $20 a barrel in 2002. Analysts say surging global demand combined with limited new supply is the main underlying factor.

The surge in prices has also attracted lots of speculative investment money, further driving prices higher.

And the tight supply and demand situation magnifies the effect that geopolitical tensions have on prices, as there is less spare supply available globally to cover disruptions from places like Iran, Nigeria or Venezuela.

The falling U.S. dollar has also played a role, as oil worldwide is priced in dollars.

Oil-producing nations have less incentive to ramp up output if the buying power they receive per barrel is declining, and foreign consumers have less incentive to reduce demand if oil is, relatively, getting cheaper for them.

World News says that $120 per barrel is months away.

Yes, here I go again, to the USA

Yes, here I go again, to the USA for the 4th time in 2 months.

I think I have an addiction. It's called the "Canadian Dollar and what it's worth in the USA" addiction. Great deals everywhere, even at the car dealerships. You just have to arm wrestle the for a while. My buddy just saved about $15,000.00 off the cost of a new Honda Pilot. Great deal at about $29,500.00. Compare that to the price in Canada. Nuts. But, don't try and force this on people, not everyone likes to know.

And for everyone else, I was screwed today at the door by Canada Post. Nailed $37.00 duties and taxes for my $98.00 pair of Joe Rocket pants. Little did I know, there are places in Maine I could have had them shipped to and picked them up for NOTHING compared to $37.00. Another lesson learned. My boots are coming next week as a gift valued at $60.00. That means, NO DUTIES and NO TAXES.

Have a great trip all,

Savin in Maine

Loonie tops $1.08 US in overseas trading

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 6, 2007 7:48 AM ET
The Canadian Press
The high-flying loonie has cleared another symbolic milestone — topping the $1.08 US mark in early-morning overseas trading Tuesday.
Just after 6 a.m. ET, the Canadian dollar traded briefly at 108.007 cents US, before dropping back below the benchmark $1.08 figure.
On Monday, it closed up 14 basis points at 107.18 cents US. That close broke through the previous 50-year-old high that was reached on Friday.
A key factor in the Canadian dollar's rise is the price of oil. It was trading Tuesday above the $95 US a barrel mark.
Traders expect further declines in U.S. crude oil stocks and that's fuelling concerns that supplies may be inadequate going into the Northern Hemisphere winter.
Analysts think some traders and investors will try to push oil prices to the psychologically important $100-per-barrel level this week.

"Thank you for contributing to the U.S. economy..."

Uh oh...

CBC News

Freedom, as in 'feel free to wait'.

Loonie higher in record territory

Globe and Mail Update

November 5, 2007 at 5:48 PM EST

The unflappable Canadian dollar brushed aside falling oil prices and pushed higher into record territory Monday, with a new forecast calling for it to reach $1.12 (U.S.) in the coming months.

Surging commodity prices helped the loonie hit a major milestone last week, when it topped the Bank of Canada's previous official record high of $1.0614 set on Aug. 20, 1957. A number of economists and currency strategists revised their forecasts after last week's move, and although many say the currency is now above its suggested fair value, they agree that conditions seem ripe for further gains.

“The Canadian dollar is well positioned to extend current gains to peak at around $1.12 over the next two quarters,” Bank of Nova Scotia projected in a report Monday.

The loonie is being supported by a variety of factors, Scotiabank said, including a persistent weakness in the U.S. currency, speculative buying, strong commodity prices – particularly for crude oil – and the prospect of lower U.S. interest rates at a time when the Bank of Canada is expected to stand pat.

Canadian dollar continues to hover in record high territory, holding steady above $1.07 (U.S.). (CP)

Royal Bank of Canada raised its forecast for the Canadian currency on Friday, saying it will appreciate to around $1.08 before declining below parity with the U.S. dollar in the second half of next year.

The Canadian dollar has outperformed all other major currencies this year, rising 25 per cent against the greenback in 2007 and 5 per cent in the past month alone. It climbed even further Monday, finishing the session at $1.0718, up a smidgen from $1.0704 on Friday.

Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns, said everyone is talking about how much higher the loonie can go, and how quickly it can get there. “Having now broken above $1.07, the currency is in uncharted territory and still has the wind at its back,” he said.

The dollar initially weakened Monday as crude oil prices eased below $94 a barrel. Increased risk-aversion also gripped markets after Citigroup Inc. warned of billions more in loan losses and the resignation of its chief executive officer Charles Prince fuelled fears of further fallout from the subprime lending debacle.

Despite oil's decline Monday, commodity prices are still at record highs and the U.S. dollar shows no signs of breaking out of its funk.

“All that can be said on that front is that the currency has been on a one-way trip north for five years, and the two big drivers – strong commodities and a weak U.S. dollar – are still very much in place,” Mr. Porter said. He noted that currency markets have a tendency to overshoot – “sometimes for years on end and sometimes wildly so” – to levels above those that seem reasonable by any traditional economic measures.

Mr. Porter expects the Canadian dollar will reach $1.10 early next year, before pulling back to the 90- to 95-cent range.

Loonie shows mettle

After a record-setting day Friday, the Canadian dollar appears set for further gains into previously unexplored territory while credit worries to hamper stocks
By MALCOLM MORRISON The Canadian Press
Sun. Nov 4 - 6:05 AM

Federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty discusses dollar parity as he speaks to the Rotary Club on Toronto on Friday. (Frank Gunn / The Canadian Press)

TORONTO — The loonie is cleared to takeoff to even higher levels after the Canadian dollar had an amazing run last week, blowing through 50-year-old highs against the U.S. currency on the usual suspects — a lower greenback, higher oil prices and in particular a blow out jobs report for October.

The Canadian dollar shot up as much as two cents US Friday after Statistics Canada announced that the Canadian economy created 63,000 jobs in October, much higher than the consensus of 12,000.

The employment increase dropped the official jobless rate to a 33-year low of 5.8 per cent, from 5.9 per cent in September.

"The direct response of the currency to the labour market report is not that unusual but what is unusual of course was the starting point for the currency — it’s already had an unprecedented rise in the last two months, never mind the last five years," said Doug Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns.

"It’s gone from incredible strength to incredible strength."

The dollar ultimately ended Friday’s session up to a record high of cents US, well past the high of 106.14 cents US set in August, 1957.

The latest surge in the dollar coupled with further evidence of a strong economy makes it increasingly difficult for the Bank of Canada to use lower interest rates to cool demand for the currency.

"Overall the Canadian economy is on quite a roll here, the labour market is tight, and wage pressures are starting to creep up so it would be fairly difficult for the Bank of Canada to cut rates any time soon," said Craig Wright, chief economist at the Royal Bank.

"A fundamental move higher in the currency is fine, when you get into the speculative side of it, which I think we’re into to some degree now, then there may be some scope for the bank to offset some of that with a move but that’s probably a story for next year rather than this year."

Meanwhile, stock markets look set for a down week after the U.S. Federal Reserve last Wednesday cut interest rates by a quarter point to help mitigate damage from the contracting U.S. housing sector and keep the credit crisis from spreading into the broader economy.

Initially, the cut sent markets surging close to record levels but by the end of the week the mood turned more negative, despite the strong October jobs data, as worries resurfaced about credit conditions and the strength of financial companies.

Stocks have had a tremendous runup since the Fed cut interest rates a half point in September and investors hoped the worst of the credit troubles were behind the market.

However, at week’s end an analyst downgraded U.S. banking giant Citigroup to sector underperformer from sector performer, citing potential worries about its dividend payments.

And the Wall Street Journal reported that brokerage giant Merrill Lynch has engaged in deals with hedge funds to delay when it had to record losses on risky mortgage-backed securities.

It also said the Securities and Exchange Commission has started a probe looking at how Wall Street is valuing mortgage securities.

"It seems like credit market concerns, which really erupted in the summer and seemed to have faded, have never really gone away for the U.S. markets and they certainly have returned to the fore in recent days," added Porter.

The malaise also spread to the financial sector on the TSX, despite the fact that Canadian banks’ exposure to troubled U.S. mortgages is minimal.

"I think the broader concern of the credit turmoil we’re still living through for the economy is that it can squeeze the credit availability either directly or indirectly and I think that’s the concern for economic growth and more specifically for the financial services sector generally," he said.

Also weighing on investors was the message from the Fed last week that it’s done with this cycle of rate cuts since the economic data available so far indicates the damage from the housing sector is being contained.

"The standard view has been on Wall Street and elsewhere that the housing market is just so weak that there’s a real risk that it spills over to the rest of the economy," said Porter.

"But so far, evidence of a serious spillover is pretty hard to find."

Overall the Canadian economy is on quite a roll here, the labour market is tight, and wage pressures are starting to creep up so it would be fairly difficult for the Bank of Canada to cut rates any time soon. ... that’s probably a story for next year rather than this year.’
CRAIG WRIGHTchief economist, Royal Bank

Loonie closes above $1.07 US on strong job growth

Last Updated: Friday, November 2, 2007 | 8:41 AM ET

CBC News

The Canadian dollar gained almost two full cents against the U.S. greenback Friday following the release of a surprisingly strong jobs report in Canada.

The loonie closed the trading day at $1.0704 US, up 1.92 cents from Thursday. It went as high as $1.0730 US during the day, according to Bank of Canada data.

It's now at its highest level against the U.S dollar since the Canadian currency was allowed to float in 1950.

'We would not be surprised at all to see [the dollar] back at parity within a few weeks.'—Gavin Graham, Guardian Group of Funds

The Canadian economy added 63,000 jobs in October, pushing the jobless rate down 0.1 of a percentage point to 5.8 per cent — a 33-year low.

U.S. job growth was also much stronger than expected in October, adding 166,000 jobs when about 80,000 additions had been expected.

A weakening U.S. dollar, a cut in U.S. interest rates, economic concerns south of the border, strong oil prices and a healthy Canadian economy have all combined to push the loonie sharply higher.

The loonie hit parity with the U.S. dollar on Sept. 20 — a first in 30 years. Earlier this week, the Canadian dollar surpassed its previous post-war high of $1.0614 US, set in August 1957.

So far this year, the dollar has gained 24 per cent against the U.S. greenback, making it the best performer among the 16 most actively traded currencies, Bloomberg reported.

$1.10 US coming?

The speed of the dollar's ascent has forced economists to repeatedly revise their forecasts of just how high the loonie might fly. Many now see $1.10 US as a realistic near-term target.

"Crude oil could surely push the loonie up to $1.10 US in the near term, but not on a sustainable basis," TD Bank economist Pascal Gauthier wrote in a report Friday.

Gavin Graham, chief investment officer at Guardian Group of Funds, agreed that the loonie won't stay at these heights, especially after Friday's huge gain.

"We would not be surprised at all to see it back at parity within a few weeks, because what [a two-cent rise in one day] means is everybody and their grandmother is now long the Canadian dollar and short the U.S. dollar, and that only ends one way: with a big reversal," he told CBC News.

Speaking to reporters in Halifax, Prime Minister Stephen Harper said he doesn't comment on the value of the dollar.

"That is the responsibility of the Bank of Canada," he said.

Harper added the government has a lot of confidence in Canada's economy, but acknowledged the high dollar presents it with "some difficulties as well as some advantages."

'No quick fix': Flaherty

Some critics have urged the federal government to signal the Bank of Canada to lower interest rates to bring down the soaring dollar and ease the pressure on exporters.

But Finance Minister Jim Flaherty told a business group in Toronto it would be "a mistake for anyone to think there is a quick fix to this." He also declined to comment on central bank policy.

Sears Canada and Rexall Drug Stores on Friday joined a growing list of retailers lowering prices to reflect the high dollar. "Canadians expect us to give them lower prices in light of the dollar's value, and we are working to meet these expectations," said Sears Canada CEO Dene Rogers in a statement.

Wal-Mart, Zellers, the Bay and Indigo Books and Music have also slashed prices recently. Some car companies have lowered sticker prices or boosted incentives to keep customers from crossing the border.